for SALVADOR KWINIKA
JOHANNESBURG, (CAJ News) – A SHIFT to warmer conditions is an imminent challenge in the agricultural sector in the southern African region.
One expert has expressed concern about this change from favorable rains to drier conditions, at a time when the deepening energy crisis continues to present problems for different parts of the agricultural sector.
South Africa, a net exporter of cereals in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region, is the epicenter of the drought.
No less than eight people have been reported dead from the heat wave that has devastated the country in recent days. Temperatures have exceeded 40°C in some areas.
“We are concerned about the impact of the hot weather that parts of South Africa have been experiencing,” lamented Michael Currin, acting director general of the Government Communication Information System.
Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Chamber of Agricultural Business (Agbiz), noted that the challenge of El Niño-induced drought will not be limited to South Africa, but will be felt across southern Africa.
He highlighted that recent intense cycles of drought have led to increased food insecurity in the 16-nation regional bloc with an estimated population of 379.69 million people.
“This is a particular risk if the upcoming summer season is dominated by drought,” Sihlobo said.
He urged policymakers in the region to be aware of this growing challenge and plan accordingly to support communities that are heavily dependent on agriculture.
Sihlobo said that in South Africa, even more worrisome is that the agricultural regions that irrigate face continuous interruptions due to load shedding.
The country, which is the largest economy in the region, is experiencing its worst series of power outages in its history, as utility Eskom struggles to keep up with demand.
Meanwhile, South Africa has had four La Niña-induced above-average rainy seasons from 2019/2020 to 2022/2023.
These supported agriculture, leading to higher yields in various field crops, fruits, and vegetables. The cattle industry also benefited from improved pastures.
“Having four consecutive La Niña seasons was unusual,” Sihlobo explained.
“The typical cycle is two seasons of higher precipitation followed by normal to drier seasons.”
Sihlobo noted that, excluding the current trend, the only other similar period in the recent past spanned the 2007/2008, 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 production seasons.
Scientists at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University have warned that an El Niño is likely later this year.
In its January 19 update, the institute indicated that the probability of El Niño remains low until May-July 2023 (44 percent probability), but becomes the dominant category after that with probabilities in the range of 53 percent to 57 percent.
Southern Africa is among the regions most affected by climate change.
This causes severe droughts and cyclones.
The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) reported that erratic rainfall since November had resulted in “abnormal dryness” across much of Botswana, central and southern parts of Zimbabwe, southern Mozambique and central parts. -northern South Africa.
He noted that an “abnormal heat hazard” is posted in some of those regions.
– CAJ News
