US-Russian fight over Africa takes center stage
Africa was a major focus for both the US and Russia last week, with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov traveling to the continent in an attempt for influencing key states. The two are fighting for influence in Africa as European states leave the Sahel and China pushes further into the continent. Africa can be viewed within the context of the great power competition framework. For Washington, Africa remains of vital importance. Yellen visited Senegal, South Africa and Zambia, while Lavrov visited South Africa, Eswatini, Angola and Eritrea. Lavrov’s visit to the mainland was the second in six months.
The United States’ strategy toward Africa centers on the simple recognition that the continent will shape the future of the global economy. Yellen’s visit was the start of the Biden administration’s efforts to rebuild ties with Africa in light of China’s rapidly increasing economic presence on the world’s second-largest continent and Russia’s military and diplomatic standing in parts of the.
Yellen’s time in Zambia focused on Chinese debt traps and mining interests. The United States was working on a formula to reject such activity, especially as China digs deeper into key African mining states. The United States is reaching out to other European and Arab partners to help “offset” Chinese and Russian mining practices by reaching new and transparent deals. For example, the Democratic Republic of the Congo signed such an agreement with the United Arab Emirates as part of Washington’s Africa policy agenda.
Yellen visited the South African coal mining province of Mpumalanga and announced tougher measures to cap the price of premium Russian oil products on the international market. She also called on South Africa to respond to serious sanctions violations by local companies or governments. Yellen’s warning was meant to be heard in every African capital. His comments were accompanied by Washington declaring Russia’s Wagner Group a foreign terrorist organization that is present in various hot spots across the continent. This was a strong warning of the determination of the United States and the West. Yellen making these comments from South Africa was also very significant.
Lavrov’s visits to Angola and Eritrea were contrary to US interests as presented by Yellen during her trip to Africa.
Dr. Teodoro Karasik
South Africa, Africa’s most developed economy and central to the US plan, also has deep ties to Russia and China. He raised his concerns at the White House in February 2022, when Pretoria announced it would host Russian and Chinese warships and take part in joint naval exercises off its east coast near the sensitive Mozambique Channel zone.
While Yellen focused on warning South Africa, Lavrov visited Eswatini. Eswatini is one of the few countries in the world to recognize Taiwan, so Lavrov’s presence in the former Swaziland was significant. Eswatini signed an agreement with Taiwan to place one of the largest data centers in Africa in the country. Lavrov’s visit may disrupt or influence those plans, to the benefit of Chinese tech companies. Eswatini is also close to the southern areas of Mozambique, a major focus for many international players.
Lavrov’s visits to Angola and Eritrea were contrary to US interests as presented by Yellen during her trip to Africa. Lavrov is seeking continued support for Russia from African states. In the first UN General Assembly resolution in March last year condemning Russia’s actions in Ukraine, African countries formed a significant proportion of those who abstained. Eritrea was one of five countries that voted against the motion, along with Syria, North Korea, China and Belarus.
In both countries, Lavrov visited key Russian cultural monuments as part of Moscow’s soft power outreach. He also held talks with top Angolan and Eritrean leaders about Africa’s continued support for Moscow in international forums such as the UN. In Angola, Lavrov discussed building nuclear power plants in the country but, given Western restrictions and potential sanctions, the likelihood of actual construction is far off, perhaps never.
However, both in the Angolan and Eritrean capitals, Lavrov spoke of access to the Russian port. The port discussion is also very important to continue access to Russian maritime assets that have military value. Furthermore, Lavrov’s discussion with Eritrea over Russian access to the Massawa port will certainly raise security concerns, given the port’s proximity to Yemen, but also its centrality to developing Sudanese logistics lines. This discussion over port access between Russia and key African states is part of an ongoing strategy by Moscow as Western sanctions begin to hit hard.
Meanwhile, Yellen’s visit was a key piece of US foreign policy that African states need to take seriously. With France leaving the Sahel and the African continent facing a series of very serious threats, from social inequality to terrorism, there is a strong Western requirement to keep out what it sees as negative influences.
In general, Yellen and Lavrov focused more on the southern part of the continent, excluding the Russian foreign minister’s key visit to Eritrea, which is also important due to the strategic nature of how Africa is geographically divided. The root causes of Africa’s problems must be addressed objectively, rather than narratives that mask reality. It is important to pay more attention to the atmosphere, rather than relying on likely information warfare outings. Violations of the sanctions policy by African governments and stakeholders will be punished. Whether those Western sanctions will disrupt the so-called Eastern assertiveness on the African continent as part of the competition between the great powers is another question.
- Dr. Theodore Karasik is a Senior Consultant with Gulf State Analytics in Washington. Twitter: @KarasikTheodore
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