Turkey’s impending invasion of northern Syria is likely for “political reasons” rather than a national security need, and it is unclear how officials will declare “mission success,” experts told Fox News Digital.
“This is a politically motivated military incursion rather than some sort of tactically sound or strategically oriented ambition,” said Sinan Ciddi, an expert on Turkish domestic and foreign policy at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. . “The timing of this operation will have been much closer to the next Turkish presidential election, so they can get the maximum political benefit.”
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last week ordered a series of airstrikes against Kurdish militias in northern Syria and vowed to order a ground invasion of the territory as tensions over border disputes reached a peak.
Turkey launched the attacks in response to a deadly bombing raid on November 13 in Istanbul. Authorities arrested a woman of Syrian Arab origin whom they linked to the People’s Defense Units (YPG) and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The militias denied any involvement, but that did not stop Erdogan from authorizing a military response.
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The Pentagon has urged Turkey to withdraw from its plan to invade Syria as US officials warned the operation could endanger US troops in the country.
A spokesperson for the Turkish Embassy in Washington, DC, told Fox News Digital that officials “have repeatedly pointed out the threats to our national security posed by the PKK/YPG terror network in Syria and Iraq.”
“We have always called for unequivocal and genuine solidarity against terrorism in all its forms and manifestations,” the spokesman said. “Despite this, the terrorist organization continued its attacks, recently targeting innocent civilians in the heart of Istanbul.”
A view shows the aftermath of the airstrikes, which according to the Turkish Defense Ministry were carried out in Derik, Syria, on November 20, 2022.
(North Press Agency/Handout via Reuters/File)
The spokesman noted Turkey’s commitment to help fight DAESH, the Arabic name for ISIS, and is “the only NATO ally that has put its boots on the ground and has fought DAESH hand-to-hand since the beginning.” despite US officials warning that the invasion could lead to the release of detained ISIS members.
Sinam Sherkany Mohamad, representative of the Syrian Democratic Council mission to the US, said that the democratic forces, located in northern and eastern Syria, remain prepared for the invasion but “hope it doesn’t happen”.
“We don’t want war, we don’t want to create another conflict zone in the region,” Mohamad said. “Already, like Syria, we suffered a lot [in] 12 years after the Syrian crisis, so we don’t want to create another conflict zone or a war in the region that is not in the interest of anyone, not the United States, not Syria, not Turkey.”
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“We hope that the international community and major powers such as Russia and the United States will prevent us from [facing] any future ground invasion [days and weeks],” she added.
Mohamad praised US efforts to pressure Turkey to prevent the invasion from happening, echoing concerns for the safety of US troops, and urged US officials to consider sanctions against Turkey if Erdogan authorizes the invasion.
“There are many mechanisms that the US administration can do to prevent Turkey from invading this land,” he said, stressing that any invasion would result in a “humanitarian catastrophe” with millions of people displaced.
People leave the area after an explosion on the popular Istiklal pedestrian avenue in Istanbul, Sunday, November 13, 2022.
(Ismail Coskun/IHA via AP)
Erdogan previously suggested establishing a “safe zone” for refugees in northern Syria, vowing on November 25 to go ahead with his plan after carrying out the airstrikes. He raised the issue during a call on Sunday with Russian President Vladimir Putin, stressing the “importance and urgency” of creating a “security corridor” between the two countries through Syria, and the Kremlin said the defense and foreign relations of Russia and Turkey would maintain “close contacts”.
During a televised speech last week, Erdogan said that a “security zone” would protect “the rights of millions of women and children” and that his government would work to “complete this [zone] along the border from west to east as soon as possible.”
But while Turkey may tout its need for a “safe zone”, experts argue that Erdogan’s aim is purely political, aimed at distracting Turks from the economic problems facing the country.
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“I would say this is an operation…essentially [aims to] divert public attention in Turkey from the state of the economy in crisis and the anger of the people towards a kind of manufactured external crisis after the terrorist attack that happened in Istanbul in mid-November,” Ciddi explained, clarifying that while the bombing is real, Erdogan The government has not provided “any credible information” to link Kurdish militias to the attack.
“Why just accuse the YPG without any credible, substantial or solid information? Because that is an easy subject for the Kurds,” Ciddi said. “Blaming the Kurds is one thing to get some kind of nationalist base and rally around the flag of the angst that is happening in Turkey simply because Erdogan is up against a wall, essentially, electorally speaking.”
Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkey Research Program at the Washington Institute, explained that military action will align with the goal of creating a “safe zone” as Erdogan will try to capture more YPG areas and “break this into more pieces.” “.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, right, shakes hands with then-Turkey Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2010.
(AP Photo/Bassem Tellawi, File)
“Turkey, through foreign incursions in the last five years, has broken this entity into multiple pieces, and now it wants to make another incursion to break, to create another incision,” Cagaptay said.
More important may be Erdogan’s relationship with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad: Turkey has backed the Syrian rebels that Assad has driven back over the past decade to his last stronghold in the country’s northwest. Russia and Iran have supported the Assad regime.
But recent signs indicate that Turkey and Syria have begun to work to unfreeze that icy dynamic. In September, Turkey’s intelligence chief held several meetings with his Syrian counterpart as Russia encouraged greater cooperation between the two countries.
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Cagaptay believes that Erdogan’s action in Syria could play into that equation if Turkey can absorb those parties in exchange for support and recognition, which in turn would possibly lead to an end to the long-running war in Syria.
“Assad is going to say: ‘What are you going to do for me?’ and Erdogan is going to say, ‘I recognize you, a Syrian sovereign, I’m sorry for everything I’ve done,'” Cagaptay said. “And I think that’s how the war in Syria will probably end.”
Kemal Kirişci, a non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center on the United States and Europe’s Turkey Project, noted that Erdogan is in a precarious position as his intentions and loyalties remain unclear.
“[Erdogan is] playing around with becoming a member of the Shanghai [Cooperation]and then he is giving Greece a hard time, etc.,” Kirişci said. “On the surface, it seems that he wants to alienate Turkey from the West… ideologically, this is his preference.”
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“Erdogan is well aware that he cannot afford to be alone in front of the Russian bear,” he added. “And he is also very aware that he has become too dependent on Putin and Russia.”
Reuters contributed to this report.
