A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would bring heavy casualties not only to China and Taiwan, but also to the US and Japan, a top Washington think tank found after running war game simulations mimicking a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Taiwan in 2026.
These war games, conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), looked at 24 scenarios of what an invasion might look like.
In the first three weeks of the invasion, more than 3,200 US soldiers would be killed in action, about half the casualties in the 20-year war in Iraq and Afghanistan. This excludes casualties that could occur in other theaters such as the South China Sea. China would suffer the most casualties, losing around 10,000 in combat during the first three weeks of their invasion. According to the report, an overwhelming majority of the more than 30,000 surviving Chinese in Taiwan would likely become prisoners at the end of the fighting.
Mark Cancian, the author behind the war game report, said the US must do more to bolster Taiwan’s security in the Pacific, saying the US cannot send weapons after the invasion as it did in Ukraine. “Chinese air and naval capabilities are strong enough to prevent reinforcements from reaching Taiwan. So Taiwan will need to have all its equipment before the conflict starts,” Cancian told Fox News.
In this undated file photo, a Chinese PLA J-16 fighter jet flies at an undisclosed location.
(Taiwan Ministry of Defense via AP)
INSPIRED BY UKRAINE, TAIWAN SEEKS TO STRENGTHEN MILITARY PREPAREDNESS WHILE THREAT FROM CHINA CONTINUES
Cancian said the United States needs to speed up its military shipments to Taiwan, specifically long-range bombers with long-range anti-ship missiles. “Our inventory of those missiles is very low. We ran out of them in just a couple of days. We need to build many more of those,” he warned.
Ninety percent of coalition aircraft would be lost to Chinese missile strikes on the ground rather than in the air. Cancian stressed that building hardened shelters to protect aircraft would be very important, criticizing Andersen Air Force Base in Guam for not having hard shelters to provide aircraft protection. “Chinese missiles would devastate those planes,” he said.
A Japan Ground Self-Defense Force Type 10 battle tank fires ammunition during a live exercise at the Fuji East Maneuver Area in Gotemba, Shizuoka, Japan on May 28, 2022.
(Tomohiro Ohsumi/Getty Images)
Japan is a crucial part of Taiwan’s defense. The United States has bases in Japan, home to its attack aircraft. “They have relatively short legs. They need to get closer in order to affect the fight for Taiwan. Therefore, the connection with Japan is absolutely critical to defend Taiwan,” Cancian said.
Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met with President Biden in the Oval Office of the White House on Friday as fears mount that China may have the ability to invade Taiwan in years to come. “Japan and the United States are currently facing the most challenging and complex security environment in recent memory,” Koshida told Biden.
President Biden, right, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida meet in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, on Friday.
(Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
FOR CHINESE MILITARY PLANNERS, TAIWAN IS NOT AN EASY ISLAND TO INVADE
Kishida was accompanied in Washington by his foreign and defense ministers. The delegation drew up plans to build airstrips on uninhabited Japanese islands closest to Taiwan. Japan announced that it would buy more Tomahawk missiles and long-range cruise missiles from the US.
Japan has committed to a historic increase in defense spending, 2% of GDP over the next five years, making it the third largest defense budget in the world. This is a big break from Japan’s pacifist military strategy after World War II.
The US and Japan announced a new space security agreement and a smaller, more advanced Marine Corps regiment with advanced intelligence and anti-ship missile capabilities to be stationed in Okinawa, Japan.
The 12th Marine Regiment already on Okinawa will transition to become the 12th Marine Littoral Regiment by fiscal year 2025. Although no new units will be added to Okinawa under of the agreement, it will transform the 12th Marine Regiment into a smaller and faster mobile unit. It includes a combat team with an anti-ship missile battery, a logistics battalion, and an air defense battalion. This would reduce the number of Marines on Okinawa, which currently stands at about 3,400 Marines and sailors, to about 2,000. “The idea is that it can contribute to this air-naval conflict in the western Pacific,” Cancian said.
A member of the People’s Liberation Army looks through binoculars during military exercises as Taiwan’s Lan Yang frigate is seen on August 5, 2022.
(Lin Jian/Xinhua via AP)
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After a 2+2 meeting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and their Japanese counterparts on Wednesday, Austin explained the new capabilities of this Marine regiment. “We will equip this new formation with advanced intelligence surveillance, surveillance and reconnaissance, as well as anti-ship and transport capabilities that are relevant to current and future threat environments,” he said.
The war games helped bring to the fore China’s capabilities in an unclassified space. “For a long time, Chinese military capabilities were not very impressive. Their air and naval power in particular was weak,” Cancian said. “That’s not true now. They built both up to a substantial amount. So bolstering these American capabilities will be important.”
