Russia’s fight for the city of Bakhmut has become “disproportionately costly” for Moscow, which despite throwing in “significant” numbers of its army, could also capture the city, gain little strategic advantage if successful officials said on Saturday.
The UK Defense Ministry has warned that Russian forces are attempting to encircle the city and have made “small” gains on the southern axis.
But the ministry also assessed that despite the immense amount of resources invested in the fight for the city of Donetsk, Russia will gain little strategic advantage if it succeeds in capturing Bakhmut.
Ukrainian tankers are seen on the front line of Bakhmut, Donetsk, Ukraine, on November 27, 2022.
(Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
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“Russia has prioritized Bakhmut as its main offensive effort since the beginning of August 2022,” the ministry said in an intelligence update. “The capture of the city would have limited operational value.”
Defense officials assess that taking the city may allow Russia to better “threaten” other large urban areas such as Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, both located north of the city, but questioned at what cost to Moscow.
“The campaign has been disproportionately expensive in relation to these potential gains,” the intelligence update said. “There is a realistic possibility that Bakhmut’s capture has become primarily a token political goal for Russia.”
Ukrainian servicemen are seen after firing a mortar charge on the Toretsk front line in Donbas, Ukraine, on December 2, 2022.
(Narciso Contreras/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
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Following Ukriane’s success in mid-September in driving Russian forces out of the neighboring Kharkiv region to the west, Ukrainian forces have repelled Moscow’s troops further east to the north of Donetsk.
This has taken the fighting beyond areas such as Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, although the fighting has become even more intense around Bakhmut.
Unverified videos circulating on social media show scorched earth reminiscent of World War II footage, blackened by months of constant artillery fire where the notorious Wagner Group is allegedly leading Russia’s war effort.
A source described the fight as a “meat grinder” to The Moscow Times this week and Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said Bakhmut is seeing some of the toughest fighting in Ukraine right now.
Donetsk, one of the regions Russia illegally annexed earlier this year, has seen constant fighting since the war began nine months ago.
Armed members of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) fire shells at the Bakhmut border front in Donetsk, Ukraine, on December 1, 2022.
(Leon Klein/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
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Western officials worry that the winter months could further prolong the war and give Russian President Vladimir Putin the time he needs to regroup his troops, despite the heavy losses Moscow is believed to have suffered.
Putin’s refusal to withdraw from Ukraine has led the US and its European allies to try to starve Moscow’s war chest by any means possible, including hitting oil exports, supplying Ukraine with constant military weapons and funding initiatives to maintain Ukraine’s power and water. winter.
