It has been thought that the ANC’s elective conference would be lost by President Cyril Ramaphosa.
Unlike his opponent, Zweli Mkhize, the ANC chairman had the advantage of being the incumbent and, for a long time, the man without a single cloud hanging over his head until February, when Arthur Fraser dealt a near lethal blow to his immaculate image. .
While Ramaphosa and his allies were advancing on the ballot for the presidential nominations with a nearly 55% lead over Mkhize, the latter was laying claim to the province of KwaZulu-Natal.
Until the end of 2021, Mkhize was thought of, both locally and internationally, as the face of South Africa’s response to Covid-19. His reputation made him popular with the general South African public and, more importantly, with his comrades.
Unlike many who did not belong to Ramaphosa’s faction, Mkhize did not identify with the radical economic transformation faction. He was impartial, reserved and willing to work with Ramaphosa in the cabinet and in the ANC.
For the first time since Ramaphoria took over the country, the ANC had an alternative to its presidency. Mkhize, many whispered, could be Ramaphosa’s yin yang. A possible vice-presidential candidate.
Mkhize’s allies say that was the moment when the people around Ramaphosa saw the danger signs. They think it was this cohesion between the two that made them nervous.
To make a long story short, Mkhize would resign after being implicated in a career-limiting scandal that rocked the health department.
This is where the story begins.
It was then that Mkhize saw an opportunity to take the ANC away from Ramaphosa, or at least from his allies.
He returned home and worked the land, resulting in ardent supporter Bheki Mtolo getting the prized role as ANC Provincial Secretary in KwaZulu-Natal.
Mkhize knew how to play his cards. He had seen former president Jacob Zuma successfully play the victim before.
“I fell victim to a faction that wants to close the door on KwaZulu-Natal,” it worked.
By March, Mkhize had consolidated his force in the province when many political journalists and pundits dismissed him.
But this was not enough. She needed to win over the rest of the group.
A single province, no matter how powerful, cannot win a conference.
Mtolo had to get to work.
Mkhize and Mtolo found sympathetic ears as they crossed provinces. Limpopo don Danny Msiza fell victim to the sidestep rule, Babalo Madikizela had lost the Eastern Cape conference despite making it clear that Ramaphosa was his preferred candidate and Gauteng was disenchanted with the party chairman who had to deal with Eskom in local government elections.
The stars aligned for Mkhize.
At the same time, Ramaphosa made serious compromising mistakes. She refused to take charge of his own campaign, and without a clear line of march from him, Ramaphosa’s allies scattered.
At least three streams were paving their own way. Unlike before, the ANC leaders who had ambitions to make it to the ballot were left alone. Without a coherent whiteboard, everyone was left to fend for themselves.
Ramaphosa’s process-oriented attitude might be precisely what sinks him.
Until Friday night, his allies were still chasing each other’s tail to find a coherent slate. No one is willing to back down, and without a leader to take control of the situation, Mkhize could find himself in an advantageous position.
It was the Ramaphosa conference that lost, but apparently only the ANC president is blind to that reality. If he doesn’t take care of his soldiers, he could find himself in the desert.
