LIMA, Peru (AP) — Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was not invited to a summit of Western Hemisphere leaders in June. But in October he traveled to Egypt for a conference where he joked with French President Emmanuel Macron and shook hands with John Kerry, the US government’s climate envoy.
The encounters, with an imposing Maduro who smiled graciously throughout, were carefully captured on video, posted on social media, and broadcast on Venezuela’s state television.
A few months into a decade since he inherited the country’s leadership following the death of President Hugo Chávez, Maduro is working to regain the international recognition he lost when his 2018 re-election was deemed a sham by dozens of nations.
Those efforts are also aimed at bolstering his strength at home as he enters 2023 as pressure mounts for a free and fair presidential election the following year.
Crucial to Maduro’s calculations are his country’s main asset, oil, and the war in Ukraine. The South American country has the world’s largest proven oil reserves but has failed to supply the Western market since the United States imposed crippling economic sanctions as democracy and human rights deteriorated after Maduro’s re-election.
The international community wants “some kind of contribution to global energy security, and with Russian oil out of the market, Venezuelan oil is attractive again,” said Ryan Berg, director of the Americas program at the Center for Strategic Studies and Internationals, a Washington-based think tank.
Maduro’s attempt to clean up his image comes as many of the conditions that made him an international pariah remain unchanged.
Independent experts working with the UN’s main human rights body have documented a systemic attack against government opponents, journalists and others. His September report alleged that Maduro personally ordered the arrest of government opponents, who suffered electric shocks, asphyxiation and other cruel acts while in custody.
An economic crisis that began during the last months of the Chávez government has only worsened during the Maduro presidency. It has driven an estimated 7 million Venezuelans to leave the country, made the local currency worthless and pushed millions into poverty.
Under Maduro, who succeeded Chávez in 2013, about three-quarters of the population lives on less than $1.90 a day, the international benchmark for extreme poverty. Power outages are part of everyday life and the water supply is severely restricted.
“He’s trying to project an image of strength, but the reality is that right now he’s incredibly thirsty for international attention,” said Geoff Ramsey, director of Venezuela research at the US-based Washington Office on Latin America think tank. Joined. “We saw this from Cairo, where he was ambushing world leaders and then projecting these meetings in the corridors as if they were official state visits.”
Maduro has serious liquidity problems and wants to access the international financial system and the US oil market, Ramsey said. But, he added, the only way Maduro is likely to get access to the dollars again is by entering into negotiations with the opposition.
Talks between Maduro and the opposition, including the US government-backed faction, were suspended for more than a year after one of his main allies was extradited to the US from Africa.
But both sides reached a significant agreement to fund much-needed social programs in late November.
The agreement will result in a fund administered by the United Nations to finance health, nutrition and education programs in Venezuela.
The money will be drawn from the country’s assets frozen abroad and is not expected to go directly to the Maduro government. But that hasn’t stopped his administration from promoting the deal as a recovery of US “hijacked” funds.
However, the conditions for the presidential elections that are supposed to take place in 2024, the release of political prisoners and the end of the bans on many opposition politicians running for public office have yet to be agreed.
The opposition plans to hold primary elections next year. Its clearest potential candidate is Juan Guaidó, though his support inside and outside Venezuela has plummeted since he declared himself a rival president to Maduro in 2019 while running the then-opposition-dominated congress and drawing tens of thousands of anti-Maduro protesters. to the streets.
There have been gains for Maduro.
A longtime supporter of Venezuela’s opposition, the government of neighboring Colombia is now headed by that country’s first leftist president, Gustavo Petro. After taking office earlier this year, Petro moved immediately to restore relations with Venezuela. In a couple of weeks, Maduro will also regain recognition from Brazil, as President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva pointed out.
Berg said the region appears to be moving away from its anti-Maduro stance “mainly because of the governments that recent elections have brought to power.”
He said some governments are working under the assumption that the “democratization of Venezuela will be a long process,” involving negotiations, multiple elections and sanctions relief, rather than change at “a discrete point in time.”
“It seems to me that the region is much more ready, much more willing now, to try that method,” Berg said, noting that many nations in the region are struggling with their own internal problems.
