The year 2022 has ended, but the Russian aggression against Ukraine continues. Of all the goals set at the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, only three have been achieved so far.
The first “achievement” is the seizure of the largest Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant in Europe. Despite calls from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the international community, Russia continues to keep its troops, weapons and ammunition at the station, occasionally threatening to blow it up, while blaming the Ukrainians.
The second achievement was the capture of the North Crimean Channel. For decades, the canal has provided most of the peninsula’s freshwater needs. After Russia’s annexation of Crimea in February 2014, Ukrainian authorities blocked the canal, leading to a catastrophic lack of water on the peninsula until Russian troops invaded the Kherson region in March 2022 and recaptured the channel control.
The latest achievement was the creation of a land corridor along the Azov Sea. This corridor provides a transport connection between Russia and Crimea, removing the “island” or enclave status of Crimea previously annexed by Russia.
According to many military and political experts, Ukraine will return these captured objects and territories in 2023.
However, this war finally revealed all the myopia of the Ukrainian political elites since Ukraine gained independence in 1991.
Aside from tactical mistakes, such as giving up nuclear weapons and transferring strategic bombers and missiles to Russia in exchange for natural gas supplies, political elites have failed to protect Ukraine from Russia in purely economic and infrastructural spheres.
Railway
One of the reasons for the rapid advance of Russian troops at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was the identical gauge of the Russian and Ukrainian railways, the history of which begins as early as the 19th century in the Russian Empire. The main movements of Russian ground troops are provided by railways.
In 30 years, the transition from Russian (1,520 mm) to European (1,435 mm) gauge was never made. Therefore, one of the most important tasks to prevent a repeat of the Russian invasion is the rapid rebuilding of the Ukrainian railways to the European gauge of 1,435mm.
The Baltic countries and Finland must complete the same task, especially since there was information that Russia was initially considering a quick invasion of the Baltic states, which could be completely occupied in a few days, long before NATO could react to the aggression. .
Despite the sad history of the expansion of the Russian Empire (the USSR and Russia), investment projects for the construction of a railway with a gauge of 1,435 mm from Vienna, Austria, to Moscow were seriously considered.
Similarly, protection of transport communications across rivers could be provided by tunneling under rivers. Instead, preference was always given to building bridges, which are easy targets for high-precision missiles. The Russians also experienced this kind of infrastructural vulnerability when Ukrainian special operations forces blew up the strategic bridge connecting Crimea to Russia across the Kerch Strait.
ignored warnings
Although there have been dire warnings about the planned Russian troop invasion of Ukraine for six months to a year, virtually no one in the agricultural sector has taken precautionary measures. For example, diversify export routes.
The rapid development of the Danube ports – Ust-Dunaisk, Kilia, Izmail and Reni – began only after the aggression. And even this route turned out to be vulnerable after the Russians destroyed the only road/rail bridge across the Dniester estuary connecting the southern Odessa region with the Danube ports in May 2022. The bridge has yet to be restored. , which significantly complicates logistics. connection of the south of Odessa with the rest of the regions of Ukraine. In most cases, cargo delivery to/from the Danube ports is carried out through the territory of Moldova.
ukrainian brand
The rapid development of the export of Ukrainian agricultural products to EU countries in 2022 is related to the support of EU countries in the form of temporary facilitations and the removal of many restrictions (including quotas, as well as veterinary and phytosanitary requirements). on the export and transit of agricultural products. Ukrainian products. It is not known whether these benefits will continue for exporters of Ukrainian agricultural products after the end of the war.
The main problem in the agricultural sector —which has not been resolved for decades— is the anticipated development of the production of raw materials, instead of their processing, in the context of a growing participation of agricultural products in the structure of total exports. The bet was made for the cultivation of cereals and oilseeds. At the same time, very little attention was paid to the development of fruit, berry and vegetable processing.
For more than 30 years of independence, Ukraine’s agricultural image has not developed further as one of the world’s largest exporters of cereals, unrefined sunflower oil and concentrated apple juice, which are not branded products. Unlike global brands like Scotch, Irish, American and Canadian whiskey; French, Californian, South African or Australian wines; Italian pasta; Irish or Belgian beer; Italian or Swiss cheeses; Belgian or Swiss chocolate; and Italian prosciutto or Spanish ham, brand name Ukrainian products cannot be found in Western supermarket chains. Sometimes Ukrainian products can be found in stores specializing in exotic, Asian, Caucasian or Russian food products, where the Ukrainian diaspora buys products of traditional Ukrainian cuisine, such as buckwheat grits, canned fish with tomato sauce, canned vegetables, jams, chocolate. , vodka, etc.
Italian, Chinese, Japanese, Thai, Indian, Mexican and Brazilian restaurants can be found in all developed countries. You can also find McDonald’s, KFC, Burger King, etc. restaurants. all over the world, but there are few Ukrainian restaurants abroad.
Restoration of Ukraine
Following the end of the war, Ukraine faces a difficult recovery period. Many Ukrainian cities were destroyed and cannot be rebuilt. Many plants in the metallurgical and chemical industry were destroyed, and many infrastructure and logistics facilities, including seaports, were destroyed and damaged. Also, many farms have been looted, destroyed and animals killed.
This means that there are great opportunities for investors. However, these possibilities can only be realized under the condition of fundamental changes in the political, judicial and police spheres, aimed at overcoming corruption, the cases of which are not isolated, even in war conditions when the whole country is bleeding.
About the Author: Iurii Mykhaylov is an agricultural journalist in Ukraine.
