While the ANC’s renewed leadership now appears to finally have a clear mandate to get to work, the clock is ticking for next year’s national and provincial elections, in a country experiencing multiple emergencies, where people are showing strong and deep dissatisfaction. with the custody of the country for almost three decades by the ruling party.
This is a daunting set of challenges for any party, even one whose leaders may finally feel there is more room to manoeuvre. If President Cyril Ramaphosa’s new majority actually used this mandate, it could institute interventions whose time is long overdue.
This year seems to be the last chance for the ANC to try to do something real. Its leaders will have to grab the nettle of difficult moves, most of which will alienate parts of their broad constituency.
With the dust finally settling on the ANC’s 55th national conference, following its final conclusion on Friday morning, there is now ample evidence that Ramaphosa has a stronger mandate to govern.
The National Executive Committee (NEC) appears to be less divided than before, and those seen as obviously supporting what used to be called the “RET faction” are fewer in number. Among the top seven national officials, Ramaphosa also seems to have, at least for now, a stronger hand. (For daily hipsterthe calculations of 57 of the 80 NEC members are now in their field.)
Crucial to this is the post of secretary general, now filled by the ever-energetic Fikile Mbalula, the man who has voiced his support for Ramaphosa for years.
Furthermore, the president’s margin of victory over Zweli Mkhize was much more comfortable than his victory five years ago (579 vs 179), when he was able to prevail against Dr. Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma.
There is also the behavior of Mkhize’s supporters that seems to support Ramaphosa’s image of strength. While KwaZulu-Natal ANC delegates were optimistic about Mkhize’s prospects until the results were announced, they were also unusually quick to accept defeat, a move critical to supporting Ramaphosa’s re-election.
This may mean that he is not facing the kind of attacks he has faced since the start of his first term as leader.
It could also explain Ramaphosa’s confidence during his January 8 address on Sunday that the “renewal of the ANC is unstoppable.”
And, of course, there is the conference’s decision Thursday night to continue to implement the “step aside” resolution, providing crucial follow-up to arguably the most important NEC decision of Ramaphosa’s first term.
Difficult questions await
But now there are several difficult questions that need to be answered in the days and months ahead.
What is important, of course, is whether and how Ramaphosa will use this newly strengthened mandate.
The first clue to this question is likely to be a cabinet reshuffle.
Ramaphosa doesn’t really face an option to do anything as Mbalula will be required at Luthuli House full-time and not returning as Transport Minister. The new deputy leader of the ANC, Paul Mashatile, has already hinted that he would like to go into governmentpresumably to replace David Mabuza as vice president.
Ramaphosa’s supporters, and perhaps broader parts of the ANC, are likely to push for action against Tourism Minister Lindiwe Sisulu, who has set out to spend all of 2022 challenging her president.
Even more pressing will be the question of what to do about Cogta’s minister, Dlamini Zuma. She challenged not only Ramaphosa, but also the ANC. publicly voting against the party line in Parliament about Phala Phala research.
If Ramaphosa does not act against him, he might well inspire others to challenge and continue to challenge his authority in the future. One thing is certain: if he doesn’t act, many will understand that he still doesn’t have what it takes to lead the game properly.
Another complicated situation exists in the office of the general secretary. Both Mbalula and his first deputy, Nomvula Mokonyane, are strong personalities, while Maropene Ramokgopa, as the second deputy, is relatively new to the party leadership.
How these three people work together could be crucial to the party’s future.
While Mokonyane and Mbalula have long histories in the ANC and have led election campaigns in the past, they also have difficult histories in government that will inevitably raise questions about their competence.
If this office fails, the ANC as a movement could be in deep trouble.
That being said, overall, it seems likely that the General Secretary’s office is on stronger ground than it was before the conference, if only because there will actually be people in the office, after Ace Magashule was suspended for most of his tenure and Jessie Duarte died.
Huge organizational problems.
However, there are other big organizational issues that need to be addressed.
The ANC’s national conference was closed last year in unprecedented fashion. Reasons given were delays in registering delegates, the weather, and that some delegates had already left.
Then, during the second part of the conference last week, there were not enough delegates present to form a quorum to allow a vote to change the ANC constitution.
This doesn’t seem to make sense. Barely five years earlier, in 2017, the conference ended at dawn the day after its closure, due to long debates on the subject of expropriation without compensation.
Why would the delegates stay late in the morning then, but leave early now? Even the people selected by the branches to be their voice in crucial political discussions did not feel the need to stay.
This must be another sign of the ANC’s problems at the branch level.
Then there are the problems that both Ramaphosa and the ANC will face this year, which could be defined by rolling blackouts.
In the ANC Conference Statement last week, delegates said:
“The ANC-led government must act decisively to implement the conference resolutions to end load shedding and stabilize electricity supply. Priority must be given to expediting the resolution of the energy crisis, in particular by performing critical maintenance at Eskom so that we return existing generation capacity to reliable service.”
On Sunday Ramaphosa said it was important to stop sabotage at Eskom and the ANC would lead a campaign against illegal connections.
But this does not necessarily provide any direction, nor does it bring the nation closer to a solution.
During the conference, delegates heard from various experts in the field.
One was Professor Sampson Mamphweli, who has generally spoken out in favor of renewable energy.
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Another was Jacob Maroga. He tried and failed to remain CEO of Eskom in 2009 after it was reported that he had vowed to resign. While he doesn’t appear to be dogmatic on the subject, some of his recent tweets can be interpreted suggest support for some fossil fuels.
The statement also says:
“We must transform and grow the economy so that it creates jobs and empowers Africans in particular and blacks in general, particularly youth, women and people living in townships and rural areas. We must introduce new measures to cut red tape and ensure that small businesses, cooperatives and informal businesses, particularly those owned by women and youth, have effective means of raising funds and accessing markets.”
But this has been said many times before. Ramaphosa made job creation one of the focal points of his 2019 inauguration speech. Ten years earlier, in 2009, the ANC said his election campaign was entirely focused on this issue.
In 2011, the then president, Jacob Zuma, again made the same promise.
It’s probably harder to grow an economy now than at any time in the last 10 years (although this could be a controversial claim, as China’s reopening and the end of the war in Ukraine could have a big impact on the economy). the world). economy and increasing demand for our mineral resources). This means there could be tough tradeoffs to come. And that the ANC will have to make decisions.
But the party has never shown itself capable of making those decisions. Instead, he kicked the can further into the future, which hasn’t arrived yet.
That being said, circumstances have changed. The party has never been under this kind of electoral pressure. The president has never been stronger within the ANC (despite, shockingly, the Phala Phala scandal).
The question that remains is whether Ramaphosa and those around him are really, finally, decidedly ready to act. MD
