Eskom has lived up to its June 2022 announcement when it said that when it comes to load shedding, the worst was yet to come.
South Africa, in 2022, experienced more load cuts than any previous year since rolling blackouts began in 2007.
On December 14, the embattled utility’s chief executive officer, Andre de Ruyter, announced during new stage five and six load shedding episodes that he was resigning, just days after being appointed three years ago to head the utility. the state company. .
In his exit interview with Eskom during a press conference, De Ruyter said he was disappointed that he was unable to achieve all the goals he had set for himself.
He blamed operational and financial difficulties, “challenges around social issues, crime and corruption, [and] delivering the disaggregation of Eskom”.
“That being said, as President [Mpho Makwana] said, I’m in a position [where] I also depend on support from the broader political economy and that is critical to enabling Eskom’s success.”
De Ruyter will leave the utility in March 2023. He is Eskom’s 13th CEO since 2000, most of the years since have been plagued by failed maintenance schedules, corruption, sabotage and a lack of manpower. and qualified management.
Less than a week after announcing his resignation, the South African National Defense Force said it would deploy troops to several power stations in an effort to stop rampant theft and sabotage of infrastructure.
The utility’s deep-seated problems, and controversial public statements made by Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe days before De Ruyter announced his resignation, have energy analysts saying they are concerned about the ability of Eskom to operate amid long-term scheduled maintenance at the Koeberg nuclear power plant. . Mantashe accused Eskom of “active agitation for the overthrow of the state.”
In 1998, the department of minerals and energy said in the White Paper on the Energy Policy of the Republic of South Africa that Eskom’s surplus generation would be “fully utilized by around 2007”.
worrying image
Last month, the utility announced that load shedding would continue through 2027. In October, Eskom released a mid-term suitability report that painted a worrying picture of the issues facing the utility internally: “The situation will worsen as Eskom’s fleet plant performance continues to trend downward, power plants shut down and demand grows.”
He pointed out that after being infiltrated by criminals who stole items such as spare parts and diesel and sabotaged power plants, maintenance could not be achieved, which led to higher stages of load shedding.
Diesel and oil were stolen at the Tutuka power station, drivers swapped coal for rock at the Matla power station, and cables were cut at the Hendrina and Tutuka power stations.
Neil Thomas Stacey, professor of biomedical engineering and wastewater management at the University of the Witwatersrand, said Eskom systems kept failing because extreme pressure and temperature put severe stress on power station tubes and, over time, they corroded and failed, sometimes. accelerated by the presence of corrosive chemicals in the hot gases from the furnace.
“This corrosion inevitably results in a breakout and requires the entire unit to be shut down for maintenance. These occasional failures are a normal part of the operation of a power plant and are taken into account when planning power generation.
“However, when they happen more frequently than expected, they result in insufficient power delivery and, in the case of South Africa, reduced load.”
He added that the utility’s problems underscore the continuing deterioration of Eskom’s coal station fleet despite attempts at better quality maintenance. The availability of energy in September was less than 40% of the installed capacity.
Energy analyst Clyde Mallinson said the situation was bleak. “What happens in a power plant under stress is that sensors and alarms go off, requiring the operator to manually reduce the load or it could trip. We are starting to see more travel and it is getting worse.”
According to energy analyst Lungile Mashele: “Reality is a horror show. The supply shortfall is between double and triple what was initially forecast, with Eskom estimating the shortfall between 4,000 megawatts and 6,000 megawatts.”
Mashele said that South Africa has generating capacity of around 44,000 MW, but uses an average of around 29,000 MW per day.
“Having more than 19,000 MW unavailable due to faults is shocking. We have never seen numbers like that. Stage eight will mean there will be no power for 12 to 14 hours a day.”
Mashele said Eskom should review its outage schedule, adding that extreme power outages were possible.
“In 2008, when they came up with stages one through eight, I don’t think they ever thought we were going to get there,” he said. “They need to review that and be realistic with what is happening in the system and tell us what stage 12 or 15 will look like.”
For the year ending March, Eskom reported an overall power availability factor of 62%, but load shedding has intensified since then, with the coal fleet’s power availability factor falling well below 60%. sometimes.
In July, an illegal strike added to its woes after it had to implement controlled blackouts equivalent to more than 90% of the power it poured in for all of 2021, according to the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR). Eskom cut 2,276 gigawatt hours of electricity in 2022, compared with 2,521 GW hours cut last year, the CSIR said.
Eskom cut power to large parts of the country to prevent the total collapse of a grid powered by outdated and unreliable coal plants prone to failure. On December 8, Eskom’s coal fleet was operating at just 40% of its installed capacity. Eskom’s new board has expressed its intention to bring power availability back to 75%, a target it believes is achievable, although it will take time.
Eskom previously reported that funding delays and municipalities’ debt also often force it to delay planned maintenance on the units, increasing the risk of failure.
“Perhaps more alarmingly, when maintenance does take place, it’s not always up to standard and the drives fail anyway,” Stacey said.
Call for a state of disaster
In early December, Ghaleb Cachalia, the DA spokesman on public companies, called on the cabinet to use its “common sense and declare a protected state of disaster on Eskom.”
“In the face of this rapidly worsening power crisis, the District Attorney has resolved to resubmit our request for a protected state of disaster at Eskom for inclusion on the agenda for the next cabinet meeting.”
Cachalia said that Eskom cannot afford to continue bearing the devastating economic cost of an electricity crisis that is becoming more damaging for the country by the day.
“The immediate result of a limited state of disaster at Eskom is that it will allow for disaster relief funding to be obtained from other government departments and resources, and to re-prioritize to keep open-loop turbines running for the immediate term.”
