The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has clarified whether Tropical Storm Cheneso poses a threat to the South African coast.
For most of this week, Cheneso has rotated aimlessly in the eastern part of the Mozambique Channel off the west coast of Madagascar, with little overall movement of the system.
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The track of Tropical Storm Cheneso
At 02:00 hours, Cheneso was located at 21.0 South and 42.0 East at 02:00 hours and was moving slowly southwest at 9 km/h.
It had an estimated mean pressure of 982 hPa.
The latest Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and guidance from the Reunion Island Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) indicate that “Cheneso” will continue to move slowly southwest today, January 28.
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The system may become a tropical cyclone
Cheneso is classified as a severe tropical storm.
It has sustained winds of 89 to 118 km/h around the core that are expected to be quite damaging.
Near the “Cheneso” system, seas are expected in the range of 4 to 6 meters.
The system is expected to intensify, at least temporarily, into a tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 118-166 km/h.
The system should continue to show a well-defined “eye”.
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Does Tropical Storm Chenese pose a threat to South Africa?
Given the current guidelines for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, SWAS is confident that this system will not have a direct impact on South Africa.
There is a high level of confidence that Cheneso will not deviate significantly from its currently intended orbit.
A faster general motion to the southeast will begin on Sunday, January 29, and Monday, January 30.
A so-called “poleward and acceleration track” is expected, which will allow the system to transition into extratropical waters of the southwestern Indian Ocean.
SAWS continues to monitor Tropical Storm Cheneso.
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