People across China crowded onto trains and buses on Friday for one of their busiest travel days in years, fueling fears of further spikes in a COVID-19 outbreak that authorities say has peaked.
In comments reported by state media on Thursday night, Vice Premier Sun Chunlan said the virus was at a “relatively low” level, while health officials said the number of COVID patients in the hospital and with critical conditions were declining.
But there are widespread doubts about China’s official version of an outbreak that has overwhelmed hospitals and funeral homes since Beijing abandoned strict COVID controls and mass testing last month.
CHINESE COVID CASES HAVE ‘PEAKED’ AHEAD OF LUNAR NEW YEAR, SAY STATE AUTHORITIES
That policy U-turn, which followed historic protests against the government’s tough anti-virus restrictions, unleashed COVID on a population of 1.4 billion that had been largely shielded from the disease since it emerged in the city of Wuhan in late of 2019.
Some health experts expect more than a million people to die from the disease in China this year, and British health data firm Airfinity forecasts COVID deaths could hit 36,000 a day next week.
“Recently, the overall pandemic in the country is at a relatively low level,” Sun said in comments reported by the state-run Xinhua news agency.
“The number of critical patients in hospitals is steadily decreasing, although the rescue mission is still heavy.”
He was speaking on the eve of one of the busiest travel days in China since the start of the pandemic, when millions of the city’s residents travel to their hometowns for the Lunar New Year holiday that officially kicks off on Saturday.
More than 2 billion trips are expected to take place in China between January 7 and February 15, the government estimates.
Travelers in China are starting to pack transit stations as the Lunar New Year festivities begin, with government officials downplaying the risks of COVID transmission and reporting falling numbers.
(China Daily via REUTERS)
“Eager to Go Home”
Excited passengers laden with luggage and gift boxes boarded the trains on Friday, heading for long-awaited family reunions.
“Everyone is looking forward to going home. After all, we haven’t seen our families for so long,” a 30-year-old man surnamed Li told Reuters at Beijing’s West Railway Station.
But for others, the holiday is a reminder of loved ones lost.
Gu Bei, a writer from Shanghai, said on the Weibo social media platform that she had been waiting almost two weeks for her mother to be cremated and the funeral home could not tell her when the service would be scheduled.
China’s internet regulator said this week it would censor any “false information” about the spread of the virus that could cause “gloomy” sentiment during the Lunar New Year festivities.
“I heard that dark and gloomy words are not allowed during the new year. So let me mourn my mother now,” Gu said in his post, which did not specify the cause of his mother’s death.
Spending by funeral homes on items from body bags to cremation ovens has risen in many provinces, the documents show, one of several indications of the number of COVID fatalities.
China has said that nearly 60,000 people with COVID died in hospital between December 8 and January 12. However, that number excludes those who died at home, and some doctors have said they don’t encourage them to put COVID on death certificates.
DOCTORS IN CHINA WERE DISCOURAGED FROM CITTING COVID AS A REASON FOR PATIENT DEATHS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OUTBREAK
cumulative demand
President Xi Jinping said this week that he was concerned about the influx of travelers to rural areas with weak medical systems and that protecting the elderly, many of whom are not fully vaccinated, was a top priority.
World Health Organization chief immunization officer Kate O’Brien praised China on Friday for making rapid progress in vaccinating older people with COVID shots and boosters since lifting anti-virus controls last month. .
However, he added that some older people found it “difficult” to understand the changes to his vaccination policy, as they had previously been advised not to seek protection.
A WHO report on Thursday said China reported a large increase in COVID hospitalizations in the week to January 15, to the highest level since the pandemic began. Hospitalizations rose 70% from the previous week to 63,307, according to the WHO, citing data submitted by Beijing.
But at a news conference on Thursday, health officials said the number of COVID patients reporting to the hospital had peaked with more than 40% fewer people being treated for critical conditions on January 17 compared to the peak of January 5.
While China’s reopening has been chaotic, investors are hopeful it will help revive its $17 trillion economy, making bets that have lifted Chinese stocks and its yuan currency to multi-month highs.
“Markets widely anticipate a surge in pent-up demand to be unleashed upon the reopening of China’s economy,” Nomura analysts said in a note.
They warned that a drop in household wealth and a rise in youth unemployment, a hangover from years of lockdowns and travel restrictions, may dampen the rebound.
While international flights are in short supply, Chinese tourists, a much-missed mainstay of the world’s travel and retail industry, are beginning to travel again.
Malls from Macau to Bangkok aim to entice them with red lantern displays and special dances to mark the Year of the Rabbit, and deep discounts.
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Chinese travel spending had grown to $255 billion in 2019, accounting for 33% of spending in the global personal luxury goods market, according to estimates by consulting firm Bain.
