Will the 2023 African elections strengthen democracy?

The Economist Intelligence Unit also warned that the election period could bring volatility in Africa and that there is a high risk of political protests, mass demonstrations and strikes in several countries.

“Firstly, it remains to be seen if the coup drama we saw on the continent in 2022 will continue or if 2023 will mark a break with this phenomenon, especially in light of the recent coup attempt in Sao Tome and Principe,” Fonteh said. Akum, executive director of the Institute for Security Studies, told DW.

According to authorities, the Gulf of Guinea island nation had a failed coup attempt on November 25, 2022.
One of the critical questions in 2023 will be whether democracy is consolidated or further delayed.

“The key elections to watch are in Nigeria, South Africa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zimbabwe, with violence likely in some of these countries,” said Alex Vines, head of the Africa program at London-based think tank Chatham House. .

All eyes on the 2023 election in Nigeria

Nigeria has seen a wave of civic and political engagement from young people ahead of the upcoming presidential elections at the end of February. However, the run-up to elections in Africa’s most populous nation has been marred by political violence and unrest.

“The elections in Nigeria are really important because it is one of the largest economies on the continent and Nigeria is struggling with security issues,” Akum said.

The election is also important because of the youth vote in Nigeria, which could change the balance of power between the main political parties one way or another.

The political environment in the country of 217 million people is tense ahead of the February vote. Acting President Muhammadu Buhari is not running again after two terms in office, making it a swing election, Akum said.

The ruling All Progressives Congress Party and the largest opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party, will be the main contenders. But Akum noted that a third candidate could have a significant impact on the race. Peter Obi, a businessman and presidential candidate for the Labor Party, has the massive support of young Nigerians.

Crises persist in West Africa

West Africa is marked by increasing instability and the spread of violent extremism, Akum said. In the Sahel countries of Burkina Faso and Mali, the military recently staged coups, in Mali for the second time in a short period. It will be important to see how his transition plays out, Akum added.

The continent’s crises will persist into 2023, according to Alex Vines. “Especially in the Sahel, particularly in Mali and Burkina Faso, but also in Niger,” he said.

The situation remains worrying in Cameroon and Nigeria, as there is great insecurity in parts of those countries.
For Vines, it remains to be seen whether the peace agreement signed in November between the Ethiopian government and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Tigray will be upheld. Furthermore, northern Mozambique remains a cause for concern, where jihadist terror is forcing people to flee.

Eastern Congo is also considered a trouble spot. The conflict there puts the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for December 20, 2023 in the spotlight.

According to Akum, the decisions of the current president Felix Tshisekedi on how to react to the violence of the rebel militias in the east could affect the conduct of the elections. But he added that what matters in all elections is how the electoral commissions effectively manage the processes and handle electoral challenges.

Tshisekedi is widely expected to run again and could face a challenge from opposition politician Martin Fayulu.

South Africa at a crossroads

In South Africa, the ruling African National Congress that has ruled the country since the end of apartheid in 1994 re-elected President Cyril Ramaphosa as its ANC party congress leader shortly before the new year.

Public interest in the vote was high, because the ANC president has traditionally been seen as the frontrunner and ultimately head of state since 1994. South Africa’s presidential and parliamentary elections will take place in 2024.

Ramaphosa faced an uphill re-election battle. He has been accused of money laundering and corruption, and the opposition has demanded his resignation. The ANC party now finds itself at a crossroads, with its position of unchallenged power in the elections at stake. Political observers say years of bad governance, conflicting policies, mismanagement and large-scale corruption are to blame.

Zimbabwe: instability and hyperinflation

In neighboring Zimbabwe, the newly formed Citizens for Change Coalition, the largest opposition party, led by opposition veteran Nelson Chamisa, is likely to face President Emmerson Mnangagwa in presidential elections scheduled for next year. .

But the brutality with which Zimbabwe’s ruling Zimbabwean Patriotic Front-African National Union has responded to challenges to its rule in the past raises fears of riots. The southern African country has been plagued by instability for more than two decades. Furthermore, hyperinflation has impoverished the once prosperous country.

Rising inflation increases debt

“Africa’s economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis in 2022 was interrupted by a series of shocks,” Vines said. These include tight supplies and rapidly rising inflation, also fueled by the global impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

As a result, he said, debt service remains a problem for many countries. Added to this, he said, are the high borrowing costs in the worst conditions in history. “This trend will continue in 2023, but there will still be African economic growth.”

The major economies of Nigeria and South Africa are likely to grow more slowly, according to Vines, but commodity prices, particularly energy products, metals and minerals, will continue to rise.

Investors and buyers are also trying to diversify their supply chains outside of Russia. Vines said that several countries, including Angola, Nigeria, Congo, Namibia, Tanzania and Zambia, will benefit.