President Cyril Ramaphosa
PHOTO: OJ Koloti, Gallo Images
- The ANC’s electoral fortunes are disproportionately tied to President Cyril Ramaphosa.
- This was the conclusion of researchers who conducted a survey of 3,200 registered voters.
- The researchers also found that Ramaphosa would enjoy support if he established a splinter party.
Some recent polls show that only 35% of current ANC voters would continue to support the party without President Cyril Ramaphosa.
If Ramaphosa were to establish a dissident political party, 39% of these supporters would follow him and 15% would support another party.
This is according to a recent survey conducted by the Social Research Foundation.
The Social Research Foundation is a think tank that focuses on issues of public policy and democracy promotion.
The poll was conducted by telephone among a randomly selected, representative sample of 3,200 registered voters, and has a national margin of error of 1.7%.
In the report, the researchers say the totals may not add up to 100% when respondents were unsure of their answers.
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When asked if Ramaphosa’s leadership had improved the state of South Africa, 33% of those polled said “yes”, while 18% of all voters (non-ANC members) disagreed.
Nearly half of those polled, who were ANC voters, agreed that Ramaphosa’s leadership was crucial to the party.
A full 62% of ANC voters (polled) agreed that Ramaphosa would succeed and 49.1% believe he would fail.
Ramaphosa is under immense pressure following the publication of an independent panel report, which reached damning conclusions against him in connection with the theft of $580,000 (10 million rand) from his game farm, Phala Phala, in Limpopo.
The researchers tentatively concluded that ANC voters were split down the middle on whether conditions in South Africa had improved after Ramaphosa became party leader.
“For just over half of ANC voters, Ramaphosa is an extremely important reason behind their continued support for the ANC.
“Nearly two-thirds of ANC voters believed that Ramaphosa would eventually create a much better country in which to live. If he split from the ANC in a splitting fashion, then depending on the circumstances, ANC voter support could fragment with less half remaining loyal to the ANC,” the report said.
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If the ANC’s support levels fall below 50% in a future election, then up to a third of its current voters may seek alternative parties to vote for, the researchers found.
“Ramaphosa’s favorability score among ANC voters, while still very strong, has declined substantially since he became ANC leader. The ANC’s electoral fortunes are disproportionately tied to Ramaphosa. If he leaves the party, his prospects for maintaining their majority in 2024 are not very good, and after a national defeat, their support levels among registered voters could well drop to 30-40%,” the report further noted.
“However, the damage from the ongoing corruption saga is likely so severe that even if he were to stay, the prospects for his party remain poor,” the researchers concluded.
