As the gravity of our political, economic and social crisis sinks in, the question on the minds of all those who have not given up on South Africa entirely is “what is to be done?”
Of course all the opinion polls show that the ANC will fall well below 50% in next year’s elections, perhaps even as low as 40%, but as the example of municipalities in places like Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, Tshwane, eThekwini and Gqeberha have As shown, the coalition government is deeply unstable in South Africa. Furthermore, it risks promoting charlatans with minimal popular support to positions of real power.
We first saw this with the fiasco of Mongameli Bobani’s term as mayor in Gqeberha. We have now seen the start of a similar fiasco in Johannesburg, where a deal between the ANC and the EFF has, of all people, seen Kenney Kunene take control of the city’s transport systems. The situation in Johannesburg is, to be frank, a farce and a dangerous one. Our largest city and financial capital simply cannot be taken seriously with a clown like Kunene in such a position.
We at eThekwini have also seen the toxic results of an agreement between the ANC and the EFF. The new work agreement between the parties in KZN could see the IFP lose power in more than 10 municipalities. This will almost certainly lead to further disruption and dysfunction. The IFP’s politics are reprehensibly conservative, but it shows more discipline than the EFF when it comes to working together in coalition agreements.
Coalition politics is not inherently unstable in global terms. In a country like Germany, it generates stable work alliances. But here, as in India or Italy, it is inherently unstable. This means that there are no long-term planning prospects. This is a disaster in a context where there is already such dysfunction in the provision and maintenance of even the most basic municipal services.
In addition, the rise of people and parties with minimal support generates a deep cynicism about democracy. This cynicism will be compounded by the elevation of corrupt individuals and parties to positions of power, a development that can only continue with the destructive forms of kleptocratic politics that erupted under Jacob Zuma.
The framers of the new political system developed after apartheid envisioned local government as the key locus for both democratic participation and service delivery. Both aspirations are in tatters in much of the country, and there is a real risk that as people turn away from compromised and failed democratic systems, some may fall under the spell of right-wing demagogues, most likely xenophobic.
EFF
We need a clear way out of this swamp. But the immediate prospects are not encouraging, as for the ANC, an alliance with the EFF offers the easiest way to stay in power. Of course, this is not set in stone and there are some senior leaders in the ruling party who would like to keep a clear distance from the EFF. In fact, some argue forcefully, albeit off the record, that while an alliance with the EFF may make sense in the short term in terms of gaining or securing control of municipalities, it is likely to seriously undermine the ANC’s position as far as is concerned. refers to the next national election.
Furthermore, Julius Malema is a quintessential political opportunist and has a long history of switching positions and allegiances in the blink of an eye. We don’t know what he’ll do next, or how long he’ll keep it. But we do know that he is hungry for power and control over budgets. In view of the EFF’s affinities with the so-called RET faction in the ANC, and its looting of the VBS bank, there can be no naivety about the character of this power hunger.
We also know that the ANC is just as hungry. In fact, today’s ANC is a project overwhelmingly sustained by this hunger: it exists largely as a patronage machine and would probably fall apart without access to patronage.
Considering this, the political logic of an alliance between the ANC and the EFF is clear to ANC elected officials who wish to remain in power. However, it will not appeal to most ANC members, many of whom loathe Julius Malema and the EFF. This could put the ANC’s national leadership on a collision course with its local leaders, generating further turmoil within the party.
Although Cyril Ramaphosa is still more popular than the ANC itself, he is by any measure a failed president. As we all know by now, he is weak, unable to act decisively, and unable to exercise his authority, even against his enemies.
But he is not Jacob Zuma. He has not set himself up as a gift at the head of a political mafia. There is a difference between not dealing with a political mob and being the boss of the political mob. A rebellion against Ramaphosa from the local party structures, a rebellion motivated by the desire to remain in office in alliance with the EFF, would be a disaster for the country.
Another period of flagrant corruption would plunge us into a deep crisis that could take a generation to get out of. Even if the EFF has just entered the cabinet after the next national elections and is not offered the vice-presidency, we will still be well on our way to a deepening crisis.
What is to be done?
There is no easy answer to the question “what should be done?”. It is simply not possible to ask people to vote for the ANC to avoid the even worse scenario of a wounded ANC allied with a greedy EFF.
The ANC has destroyed its reputation among most South Africans and is so deeply loathed that a tactical vote for the least bad of realistically feasible options is simply unpalatable.
But, at the same time, there is no credible party on the ballot that can represent national aspirations, and no party that can win a decisive victory against the ANC. At the moment, it seems highly unlikely that a credible new force will emerge to offer a credible alternative in time for next year’s elections.
The DA has degenerated into a small ethnic party with a regional power base. Herman Mashaba’s ActionSA has largely withdrawn from the media, and media attention is a requisite for electoral success for populist parties. The failure of Cosatu and the SACP to break with the ANC has made it impossible to build unity on the left, so we have no real prospect of a left party on the immediate horizon.
The overwhelmingly depressing consequence of all this is that it seems almost certain that we are simply going to have to live with an unstable and corrupt government, including opportunists of the worst kind, and completely lacking in a credible social and economic vision.
We are all going to have to buckle up for a very difficult journey over the next two years. The only way to regain some hope is to build a credible party with a viable prospect of winning more than 50% of the vote when the next election rolls around. The only way to get there is for as many South Africans as possible to enter the political arena, seek credible leaders, avoid selfishness and petty rivalries, draw a clear line against the corrupt and opportunists of all kinds, and work to build viable political parties, ideally one on the liberal side of the spectrum and one on the left.
Most South Africans are decent people who want the best for the country. Now we need to start building new electoral projects that can give hope to the decent and often silent majority. The road ahead will not be easy, but if ordinary people don’t rise to the challenge, our decline will only worsen.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect official policy or the position of the mail and guardian.
