The US withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 paved the way for China to step in and deepen its influence in the country and the broader region.
While much of the international community has rejected the Taliban for its archaic policies, particularly toward women, China has little to say about the Taliban’s dismal human rights record. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has already made the trip to Afghanistan, and China allowed the Taliban to reopen its embassy in Beijing, conferring de facto legitimacy on the Taliban government.
Security concerns along the 76-kilometre border with Afghanistan are a major factor in China’s engagement with Kabul. China views various terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan as a threat to its interests. Foremost on the minds of Chinese politicians is the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), an al-Qaeda-allied terrorist network made up of ethnic Chinese Uyghurs. The TIP carried out terror attacks inside China and is committed to the liberation of the eastern province of Xinjiang to establish an Islamic emirate. Chinese President Xi Jinping cites the TIP threat as justification for the more than 1 million Muslim Uyghurs being held in detention centers in eastern China.
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Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, right, meets with Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, political chief of Afghanistan’s Taliban, in Tianjin, north China, July 28, 2021.
(Photo by Li Ran/Xinhua via Getty Images)
The previous Taliban government from 1996 to 2001 allowed the TIP to take refuge in Afghanistan, which strained relations with China. After the fall of the Ashraf Ghani government, the TIP has been less visible, and China opened the door to the Taliban to ensure there would not be a spillover of violence across the border. The Taliban have assured China that Afghan territory will not be used for international terrorism, if only to assuage Chinese fears and encourage desperately needed cooperation on the economic front. For China, assurances from the Taliban that they will keep certain groups in check is all it takes to engage a little more.
“The Chinese play a very careful, very cautious, very transactional game when it comes to Afghanistan,” Bill Roggio, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital.
When the Taliban seized power, they vowed to impose law and order and ensured that Afghanistan would not be used as a staging ground for international terrorism. Although the lawlessness that prevailed before the Taliban takeover has eased somewhat, Afghanistan is still a dangerous place and that will be an impediment to attracting more Chinese and foreign direct investment in general.
A Taliban security personnel stands guard at the Afghanistan-Pakistan border at Spin Boldak on December 12, 2022.
(AFP via Getty Images)
China has warned its citizens to leave Afghanistan immediately after a December ISIS-K terror attack on a hotel that houses major Chinese business interests. If the Taliban cannot provide security, it could force Beijing to rethink its relationship with Afghanistan.
China will work with the Taliban when it serves its interests, primarily in the economic arena, but Beijing is under no illusions about the Taliban’s credibility.
“China is very suspicious of the Taliban because they know they are not trustworthy. While China will cooperate with the Taliban on economic issues, the TIP issue will force China to keep the Taliban at arm’s length,” Roggio added.
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Afghanistan’s economy collapsed after the Taliban seized Kabul, and the country has relied entirely on international aid to stay afloat. Working with China also helps the Taliban’s effort to gain international recognition. After the Taliban took over Kabul, the new government launched a public relations campaign to allay fears in the international community that the new Taliban were not the same as the old. After more than two years in power, the Taliban reneged on promised reforms.
Afghans dig a trench for a mass grave for their relatives killed in an earthquake at a burial site in Gayan village, Paktika province, Afghanistan, Thursday, June 23, 2022. A powerful earthquake struck a mountainous region and rugged eastern Afghanistan early Wednesday. , crushing stone and adobe houses in the country’s deadliest quake in two decades, the state news agency reported.
(AP Photo/Ebrahim Nooroozi)
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Chinese officials have made the right statements in pressuring the Taliban to respect women’s rights.
“During the peaceful reconstruction of Afghanistan, the rights of women and girls to education and employment must be effectively guaranteed. We hope that the Taliban authorities will make positive efforts to that end,” China’s ambassador to the United Nations said recently. United Nations, Zhang Jun. UN Security Council during a debate on peacebuilding in Afghanistan.
While China has not blessed the Taliban regime with official diplomatic recognition, the Taliban’s refusal to follow through on its initial promises has not prevented Beijing from pragmatically engaging with the Taliban to further its economic interests.
“Unfortunately, for the past year and a half, China has been supporting and aiding the Taliban terrorist group based on its interests, without regard to the people of Afghanistan. Its dealings with the Taliban are completely illegal and will damage its credibility in the eyes of the Taliban. of the people of Afghanistan,” Ali Maisam Nazary, head of foreign affairs for the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan, told Fox News Digital.
Chinese President Xi Jinping looks to Afghanistan to amplify China’s growing economic interests.
(Photo by Thomas Peter/ Reuters)
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Beijing is expanding its economic involvement in Afghanistan and recently signed an energy extraction agreement to drill for oil in northern Afghanistan. The Xinjiang Central Asia Oil and Gas Company signed a $540 million deal to develop an oil and gas field, the largest economic deal reached since the Taliban conquered Kabul. A 2019 report by Afghanistan’s Ministry of Mines and Oil estimated that the country has at least $1 trillion in untapped natural resources.
The UN estimates that 97% of Afghanistan’s population is at risk of poverty and, from the Taliban’s perspective, any foreign direct investment in the country will help bolster their legitimacy and ability to govern.
“We welcome Chinese investment in Afghanistan. Our people are facing poverty and unemployment. Therefore investment from any country is vital for us and welcome,” said Suhail Shaheen, head of Afghanistan’s political office. Afghanistan in Doha, to Fox News Digital.
Beijing is also interested in including Afghanistan in its Belt and Road Initiative. Launched by President Xi in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative is an effort to enhance regional cooperation and development with a wide range of infrastructure projects stretching from East Asia to Europe. Geographically situated in Central Asia and at the center of ancient trade routes, Afghanistan is a lucrative prospect for Beijing.
Roggio cautioned that even with Afghanistan’s enormous potential, as the United States has learned in its 20 years of being there after 9/11, China’s hopes for a stable and secure Afghanistan are easier said than done.
